Thirsk and Malton
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thirsk and Malton | 36.1% | 25.1% | 16.5% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+15.7 | 23.1%+2.0 | 24.3%−7.8 | 10.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,692 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 51 |
| Employment rate | 75.6% |
Current member
Kevin Hollinrake · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 15.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 11.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hollinrake Elected | Conservative | 19,544 | 39.3 |
| Lisa Banes | Labour | 11,994 | 24.1 |
| Mark Robinson | Reform UK | 8,963 | 18.0 |
| Steve Mason | Lib Dems | 5,379 | 10.8 |
| Richard McLane | Green | 2,986 | 6.0 |
| Luke Brownlee | Other | 931 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- York Outer Labour, safe seat
- York Central Labour, safe seat
- Wetherby and Easingwold Conservative, safe seat
- Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Conservative, toss-up
- Redcar Reform UK, toss-up
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated