Redcar
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 63%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redcar | 32.4% | 28.2% | 25.6% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.3 | 24.3%+4.0 | 20.4%+5.2 | 10.4%−3.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,862 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 71.2% |
Current member
Anna Turley · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Turley Elected | Labour | 15,663 | 41.0 |
| Jacob Young | Conservative | 12,340 | 32.3 |
| John Davies | Reform UK | 7,216 | 18.9 |
| Chris Jones | Lib Dems | 1,542 | 4.0 |
| Ruth Hatton | Green | 1,279 | 3.3 |
| Gary Conlin | Other | 169 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour, toss-up
- Stockton North Labour, toss-up
- Hartlepool Labour, toss-up
- Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Conservative, toss-up
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated