Easington
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 89%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easington | 38.6% | 36.0% | 9.7% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+15.6 | 24.3%+11.7 | 20.4%−10.7 | 10.4%−3.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,305 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 78.0% |
Current member
Grahame Morris · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grahame Morris Elected | Labour | 16,774 | 48.9 |
| Lynn Murphy | Reform UK | 10,232 | 29.8 |
| Joanne Howey | Conservative | 3,753 | 10.9 |
| Mary Cartwright | Other | 1,581 | 4.6 |
| Stephen Ashfield | Green | 1,173 | 3.4 |
| Tony Ferguson | Lib Dems | 811 | 2.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sunderland Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Houghton and Sunderland South Reform UK, toss-up
- South Shields Reform UK, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
- Hartlepool Labour, toss-up
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated