Houghton and Sunderland South
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houghton and Sunderland South | 37.9% | 35.6% | 12.0% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+14.9 | 24.3%+11.3 | 20.4%−8.4 | 10.4%−3.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,499 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 67.8% |
Current member
Bridget Phillipson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 17.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Phillipson Elected | Labour | 18,837 | 47.0 |
| Sam Woods-Brass | Reform UK | 11,668 | 29.1 |
| Chris Burnicle | Conservative | 5,514 | 13.8 |
| Paul Edgeworth | Lib Dems | 2,290 | 5.7 |
| Richard Bradley | Green | 1,723 | 4.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sunderland Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- South Shields Reform UK, toss-up
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated