Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | 40.0% | 27.3% | 14.9% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+15.8 | 23.1%+4.3 | 10.4%+4.5 | 20.4%−12.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 116,200 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 72.6% |
Current member
Mary Glindon · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 30.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 12.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Glindon Elected | Labour | 21,200 | 50.1 |
| Janice Richardson | Reform UK | 8,383 | 19.8 |
| Matt Williams | Green | 5,257 | 12.4 |
| Rosie Hanlon | Conservative | 3,522 | 8.3 |
| Mark Ridyard | Lib Dems | 2,965 | 7.0 |
| Muhammad Ghori | Other | 430 | 1.0 |
| Liz Panton | Other | 283 | 0.7 |
| Emma-Jane Phillips | Other | 186 | 0.4 |
| Robert Malyn | Other | 95 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, toss-up
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour, safe seat
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated