Gateshead Central and Whickham
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead Central and Whickham | 36.7% | 27.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.4 | 23.1%+4.7 | 10.3%+0.8 | 10.4%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,923 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 66.9% |
Current member
Mark Ferguson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 24.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ferguson Elected | Labour | 18,245 | 45.4 |
| Damian Heslop | Reform UK | 8,601 | 21.4 |
| Ron Beadle | Lib Dems | 4,987 | 12.4 |
| Nicholas Oliver | Conservative | 4,628 | 11.5 |
| Rachel Cabral | Green | 3,217 | 8.0 |
| Norman Hall | Other | 369 | 0.9 |
| Graham Steele | Other | 170 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, toss-up
- Blaydon and Consett Labour, competitive
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated