Washington and Gateshead South
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 70% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington and Gateshead South | 37.0% | 36.1% | 11.1% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+13.9 | 24.3%+11.9 | 20.4%−9.3 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,766 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 69.6% |
Current member
Mrs Sharon Hodgson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharon Hodgson Elected | Labour | 17,682 | 47.8 |
| Paul Donaghy | Reform UK | 10,769 | 29.1 |
| Shaun Parsons | Conservative | 4,654 | 12.6 |
| Michal Chantkowski | Green | 1,687 | 4.6 |
| Ciaran Morrissey | Lib Dems | 1,602 | 4.3 |
| Sharon McLafferty | Other | 627 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Houghton and Sunderland South Reform UK, toss-up
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- Sunderland Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated