Sunderland Central
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 73%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland Central | 34.9% | 31.4% | 12.6% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+11.9 | 24.3%+7.1 | 20.4%−7.8 | 10.4%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,595 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 69.1% |
Current member
Lewis Atkinson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Atkinson Elected | Labour | 16,852 | 42.2 |
| Chris Enyon | Reform UK | 10,779 | 27.0 |
| Greg Peacock | Conservative | 5,731 | 14.3 |
| Niall Hodson | Lib Dems | 3,602 | 9.0 |
| Rachel Featherstone | Green | 2,993 | 7.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Shields Reform UK, toss-up
- Houghton and Sunderland South Reform UK, toss-up
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
- Tynemouth Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated