South Shields
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 82% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Shields | 33.1% | 31.3% | 15.7% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.1 | 24.3%+7.0 | 10.4%+5.3 | 20.4%−10.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 89,133 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 59.6% |
Current member
Emma Lewell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Lewell-Buck Elected | Labour | 15,122 | 41.1 |
| Stephen Holt | Reform UK | 8,469 | 23.0 |
| David Francis | Green | 5,433 | 14.8 |
| Craig Robinson | Conservative | 4,128 | 11.2 |
| Ahmed Khan | Other | 2,270 | 6.2 |
| Jonathan Aibi | Lib Dems | 1,402 | 3.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sunderland Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Tynemouth Labour, safe seat
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- Houghton and Sunderland South Reform UK, toss-up
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated