Jarrow and Gateshead East
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrow and Gateshead East | 38.8% | 35.4% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+14.5 | 23.1%+12.4 | 10.4%−0.9 | 20.4%−11.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,456 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 69.4% |
Current member
Kate Osborne · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 24.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Osborne Elected | Labour | 18,856 | 51.3 |
| Lynda Alexander | Reform UK | 9,892 | 26.9 |
| Jack Gebhard | Conservative | 3,354 | 9.1 |
| Nic Cook | Green | 2,384 | 6.5 |
| Jamie Rickelton | Lib Dems | 1,740 | 4.7 |
| Mark Conway | Other | 502 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tynemouth Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Sunderland Central Reform UK, toss-up
- South Shields Reform UK, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
- Houghton and Sunderland South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated