Tynemouth
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tynemouth | 41.0% | 23.0% | 16.8% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+16.8 | 23.1% | 20.4%−3.7 | 10.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,738 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 71.2% |
Current member
Sir Alan Campbell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 18.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Campbell Elected | Labour | 24,491 | 50.6 |
| Lewis Bartoli | Conservative | 9,036 | 18.7 |
| Rosie Elliott | Reform UK | 7,392 | 15.3 |
| Chloe-Louise Reilly | Green | 3,592 | 7.4 |
| John Appleby | Lib Dems | 2,709 | 5.6 |
| Mustaque Rahman | Other | 531 | 1.1 |
| Kelly Oliver Dougall | Other | 286 | 0.6 |
| Christopher Greener | Other | 273 | 0.6 |
| Adam Thewlis | Other | 108 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- South Shields Reform UK, toss-up
- Blyth and Ashington Labour, toss-up
- Sunderland Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated