Blyth and Ashington
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blyth and Ashington | 37.3% | 35.7% | 13.1% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.0 | 23.1%+12.6 | 20.4%−7.3 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,370 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 70.9% |
Current member
Ian Lavery · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Lavery Elected | Labour | 20,030 | 49.6 |
| Mark Peart | Reform UK | 10,857 | 26.9 |
| Maureen Levy | Conservative | 6,121 | 15.2 |
| Steve Leyland | Green | 1,960 | 4.9 |
| Stephen Psallidas | Lib Dems | 1,433 | 3.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, toss-up
- Tynemouth Labour, safe seat
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
- South Shields Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated