Newcastle upon Tyne North
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle upon Tyne North | 41.0% | 19.0% | 13.7% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+16.8 | 23.1%−4.0 | 10.4%+3.3 | 20.4%−8.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,626 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 71.4% |
Current member
Catherine McKinnell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 36.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 22.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine McKinnell Elected | Labour | 24,440 | 50.3 |
| Guy Renner-Thompson | Conservative | 6,678 | 13.7 |
| Aidan King | Lib Dems | 5,936 | 12.2 |
| Deborah Lorraine | Reform UK | 5,933 | 12.2 |
| Sarah Peters | Green | 5,035 | 10.4 |
| King Teare | Other | 310 | 0.6 |
| Martin Evison | Other | 285 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, toss-up
- Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour, safe seat
- Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour, toss-up
- Blyth and Ashington Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated