Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | 35.8% | 26.9% | 12.7% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.5 | 23.1%+3.9 | 10.4%+2.3 | 5.0%+6.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 134,453 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 67.0% |
Current member
Dame Chi Onwurah · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chi Onwurah Elected | Labour | 18,875 | 45.6 |
| Ashton Muncaster | Reform UK | 7,815 | 18.9 |
| Frances Lasok | Conservative | 4,228 | 10.2 |
| Yvonne Ridley | Other | 3,627 | 8.8 |
| John Pearson | Green | 3,228 | 7.8 |
| Ali Avaei | Lib Dems | 1,946 | 4.7 |
| Habib Rahman | Other | 1,636 | 4.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
- Blaydon and Consett Labour, competitive
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
- Cramlington and Killingworth Labour, toss-up
- North Durham Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated