North Durham
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 74%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Durham | 33.6% | 30.1% | 13.8% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.5 | 24.3%+5.8 | 20.4%−6.6 | 10.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,565 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 77.2% |
Current member
Luke Akehurst · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Akehurst Elected | Labour | 16,562 | 39.9 |
| Andrew Husband | Reform UK | 10,689 | 25.7 |
| George Carter | Conservative | 6,492 | 15.6 |
| Craig Martin | Lib Dems | 4,208 | 10.1 |
| Sunny Moon-Schott | Green | 2,366 | 5.7 |
| Chris Bradburn | Other | 928 | 2.2 |
| Tom Chittenden | Other | 320 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blaydon and Consett Labour, competitive
- City of Durham Labour, safe seat
- Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour, safe seat
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated