City of Durham
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Durham | 36.3% | 26.6% | 12.2% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.1 | 23.1%+3.5 | 10.3%+1.9 | 20.4%−9.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,538 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 62.6% |
Current member
Mary Kelly Foy · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 28.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Foy Elected | Labour | 19,131 | 47.1 |
| Mark Belch | Reform UK | 7,374 | 18.2 |
| Mark Wilkes | Lib Dems | 5,920 | 14.6 |
| Luke Holmes | Conservative | 5,221 | 12.9 |
| Jonathan Elmer | Green | 2,803 | 6.9 |
| Sarah Welbourne | Other | 178 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Durham Reform UK, toss-up
- Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour, safe seat
- Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Reform UK, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
- Blaydon and Consett Labour, competitive
- Darlington Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated