Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 70% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | 33.6% | 32.8% | 17.6% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.6 | 24.3%+8.6 | 20.4%−2.8 | 10.4%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,943 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 69.3% |
Current member
Alan Strickland · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Strickland Elected | Labour | 18,394 | 46.2 |
| John Grant | Reform UK | 9,555 | 24.0 |
| Paul Howell | Conservative | 8,195 | 20.6 |
| Jack Hughes | Green | 1,701 | 4.3 |
| Anne-Marie Curry | Lib Dems | 1,491 | 3.7 |
| Brian Agar | Other | 264 | 0.7 |
| Minhajul Suhon | Other | 246 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Darlington Labour, toss-up
- City of Durham Labour, safe seat
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
- Houghton and Sunderland South Reform UK, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated