Stockton West
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton West | 37.7% | 27.0% | 23.0% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+17.3 | 24.3%+2.7 | 23.1%−0.1 | 10.4%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,633 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 82.7% |
Current member
Matt Vickers · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 4.4 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 10.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Vickers Elected | Conservative | 20,372 | 41.9 |
| Joe Dancey | Labour | 18,233 | 37.5 |
| Steve Matthews | Reform UK | 6,833 | 14.0 |
| Anna-Maria Toms | Green | 1,477 | 3.0 |
| Nigel Boddy | Lib Dems | 1,203 | 2.5 |
| Mohammed Zaroof | Other | 263 | 0.5 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 106 | 0.2 |
| Vivek Chhabra | Other | 106 | 0.2 |
| Monty Brack | Other | 45 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Reform UK, toss-up
- Darlington Labour, toss-up
- Stockton North Labour, toss-up
- Redcar Reform UK, toss-up
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour, toss-up
- Richmond and Northallerton Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated