Stockton North
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton North | 34.3% | 33.9% | 17.9% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.0 | 23.1%+10.9 | 20.4%−2.5 | 10.4%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,267 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 64.8% |
Current member
Chris McDonald · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris McDonald Elected | Labour | 17,128 | 45.8 |
| John McDermottroe | Reform UK | 9,189 | 24.6 |
| Niall Innes | Conservative | 8,028 | 21.5 |
| Samuel Bradford | Green | 1,923 | 5.1 |
| Jo Barton | Lib Dems | 1,133 | 3.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour, toss-up
- Redcar Reform UK, toss-up
- Hartlepool Labour, toss-up
- Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Conservative, toss-up
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated