Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 66%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | 34.0% | 30.2% | 17.4% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.6 | 24.3%+5.9 | 23.1%−5.6 | 10.4%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,356 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 69.0% |
Current member
Luke Myer · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 0.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 4.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Myer Elected | Labour | 16,468 | 43.3 |
| Simon Clarke | Conservative | 16,254 | 42.7 |
| Jemma Joy | Lib Dems | 2,032 | 5.3 |
| Rod Liddle | Other | 1,835 | 4.8 |
| Rowan McLaughlin | Green | 1,446 | 3.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour, toss-up
- Redcar Reform UK, toss-up
- Stockton North Labour, toss-up
- Hartlepool Labour, toss-up
- Thirsk and Malton Conservative, safe seat
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated