Hartlepool
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 34.3% | 33.9% | 18.2% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.1 | 23.1%+10.9 | 20.4%−2.2 | 10.4%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,861 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 62.9% |
Current member
Mr Jonathan Brash · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Brash Elected | Labour | 16,414 | 46.2 |
| Amanda Napper | Reform UK | 8,716 | 24.5 |
| Jill Mortimer | Conservative | 7,767 | 21.9 |
| Sam Lee | Other | 895 | 2.5 |
| Jeremy Spyby-Steanson | Green | 834 | 2.3 |
| Peter Maughan | Lib Dems | 572 | 1.6 |
| Tommy Dudley | Other | 248 | 0.7 |
| Vivienne Neville | Other | 65 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stockton North Labour, toss-up
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East Labour, toss-up
- Redcar Reform UK, toss-up
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
- Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Conservative, toss-up
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated