Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | 35.2% | 29.6% | 15.3% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.0 | 23.1%+6.5 | 20.4%−5.1 | 10.4%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,067 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 68.8% |
Current member
Andy McDonald · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy McDonald Elected | Labour | 16,238 | 47.2 |
| Patrick Seargeant | Reform UK | 7,046 | 20.5 |
| Kiran Fothergill | Conservative | 6,174 | 17.9 |
| Mehmoona Ameen | Other | 2,007 | 5.8 |
| Matthew Harris | Green | 1,522 | 4.4 |
| Mo Waqas | Lib Dems | 1,037 | 3.0 |
| Mark Baxtrem | Other | 383 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Redcar Reform UK, toss-up
- Stockton North Labour, toss-up
- Hartlepool Labour, toss-up
- Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Conservative, toss-up
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
- Easington Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated