Richmond and Northallerton
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond and Northallerton | 43.3% | 22.7% | 14.9% | 7.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+22.9 | 23.1%−0.3 | 24.3%−9.4 | 10.4%−2.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,899 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 85.2% |
Current member
Rishi Sunak · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 25.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 20.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rishi Sunak Elected | Conservative | 23,059 | 47.5 |
| Tom Wilson | Labour | 10,874 | 22.4 |
| Lee Taylor | Reform UK | 7,142 | 14.7 |
| Daniel Callaghan | Lib Dems | 4,322 | 8.9 |
| Kevin Foster | Green | 2,058 | 4.2 |
| Count Binface | Other | 308 | 0.6 |
| Brian Richmond | Other | 222 | 0.5 |
| Niko Omilana | Other | 160 | 0.3 |
| Rio Goldhammer | Other | 132 | 0.3 |
| Sir Archibald Stanton | Other | 99 | 0.2 |
| Louise Dickens | Other | 90 | 0.2 |
| Angie Campion | Other | 33 | 0.1 |
| Jason Barnett | Other | 27 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Darlington Labour, toss-up
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
- Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Reform UK, toss-up
- City of Durham Labour, safe seat
- Harrogate and Knaresborough Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bishop Auckland Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated