Bishop Auckland
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 64%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Auckland | 33.4% | 29.5% | 21.7% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.4 | 24.3%+5.2 | 20.4%+1.3 | 10.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,948 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 72.6% |
Current member
Sam Rushworth · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Rushworth Elected | Labour | 17,036 | 42.1 |
| Jane MacBean | Conservative | 10,364 | 25.6 |
| Rhys Burriss | Reform UK | 9,466 | 23.4 |
| Sarah Hannan | Green | 1,857 | 4.6 |
| Helen Cross | Lib Dems | 1,373 | 3.4 |
| Rachel Maughan | Other | 331 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Durham Reform UK, toss-up
- Blaydon and Consett Labour, competitive
- City of Durham Labour, safe seat
- Darlington Labour, toss-up
- Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour, safe seat
- Richmond and Northallerton Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated