Darlington
Westminster constituency · England · North East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 54% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darlington | 29.2% | 28.5% | 26.4% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.9 | 20.4%+8.1 | 23.1%+3.4 | 10.4%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,710 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 74.5% |
Current member
Lola McEvoy · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lola McEvoy Elected | Labour | 16,621 | 39.2 |
| Peter Gibson | Conservative | 14,323 | 33.8 |
| Michael Walker | Reform UK | 6,852 | 16.2 |
| Matthew Snedker | Green | 2,847 | 6.7 |
| Simon Thorley | Lib Dems | 1,735 | 4.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Reform UK, toss-up
- Richmond and Northallerton Conservative, safe seat
- Stockton West Conservative, safe seat
- City of Durham Labour, safe seat
- North Durham Reform UK, toss-up
- Washington and Gateshead South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated