Harrogate and Knaresborough
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate and Knaresborough | 42.0% | 26.0% | 18.0% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+31.7 | 20.4%+5.6 | 23.1%−5.1 | 10.4%−4.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,221 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 70.7% |
Current member
Tom Gordon · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 15.8 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 16.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Gordon Elected | Lib Dems | 23,976 | 46.1 |
| Andrew Jones | Conservative | 15,738 | 30.2 |
| Jonathan Swales | Reform UK | 5,679 | 10.9 |
| Conrad Whitcroft | Labour | 4,153 | 8.0 |
| Shan Oakes | Green | 1,762 | 3.4 |
| Paul Haslam | Other | 620 | 1.2 |
| Stephan Metcalfe | Other | 136 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds North East Labour, safe seat
- Wetherby and Easingwold Conservative, safe seat
- Leeds Central and Headingley Labour, safe seat
- Leeds North West Labour, safe seat
- Leeds East Labour, safe seat
- Leeds South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated