York Central
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York Central | 45.0% | 17.9% | 16.9% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+20.8 | 23.1%−5.1 | 10.4%+6.5 | 20.4%−9.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,734 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 77.8% |
Current member
Rachael Maskell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 44.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 26.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rachael Maskell Elected | Labour | 24,537 | 56.6 |
| Richard Hudson | Conservative | 5,383 | 12.4 |
| Lars Kramm | Green | 5,185 | 12.0 |
| Cliff Bond | Reform UK | 4,721 | 10.9 |
| Alan Page | Lib Dems | 3,051 | 7.0 |
| Alisdair Lord | Other | 133 | 0.3 |
| Roger James | Other | 131 | 0.3 |
| Ruairi Kendall | Other | 98 | 0.2 |
| Leo Mayne | Other | 84 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- York Outer Labour, safe seat
- Wetherby and Easingwold Conservative, safe seat
- Selby Reform UK, toss-up
- Thirsk and Malton Conservative, safe seat
- Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Reform UK, toss-up
- Leeds East Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated