Goole and Pocklington
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goole and Pocklington | 34.4% | 26.2% | 22.3% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.0 | 23.1%+3.1 | 24.3%−1.9 | 10.4%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,899 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 85.7% |
Current member
David Davis · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Davis Elected | Conservative | 18,981 | 38.2 |
| Liam Draycott | Labour | 15,409 | 31.0 |
| Rich Kelly | Reform UK | 9,054 | 18.2 |
| Dale Needham | Lib Dems | 3,380 | 6.8 |
| Angela Stone | Green | 2,451 | 4.9 |
| Shona Wade | Other | 467 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Reform UK, competitive
- Scunthorpe Reform UK, toss-up
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
- Gainsborough Reform UK, toss-up
- Doncaster North Labour, safe seat
- Selby Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated