Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | 33.6% | 27.6% | 25.6% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.5 | 20.4%+7.1 | 24.3%+1.3 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,297 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 79.0% |
Current member
Lee Pitcher · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Pitcher Elected | Labour | 15,122 | 38.6 |
| Nick Fletcher | Conservative | 12,811 | 32.7 |
| Irwen Martin | Reform UK | 8,487 | 21.7 |
| Paul Garrett | Green | 1,400 | 3.6 |
| Nicola Turner | Lib Dems | 1,166 | 3.0 |
| Michael Longfellow | Other | 146 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Doncaster North Labour, safe seat
- Goole and Pocklington Conservative, safe seat
- Bassetlaw Reform UK, competitive
- Gainsborough Reform UK, toss-up
- Doncaster Central Labour, toss-up
- Selby Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated