Doncaster Central
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 84%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster Central | 33.5% | 30.7% | 18.5% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+9.3 | 23.1%+7.7 | 20.4%−1.9 | 10.4%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 113,658 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 71.8% |
Current member
Sally Jameson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 25.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sally Jameson Elected | Labour | 17,515 | 46.2 |
| Nick Allen | Conservative | 7,964 | 21.0 |
| Surjit Duhre | Reform UK | 7,886 | 20.8 |
| Jennifer Rozenfelds | Green | 1,880 | 5.0 |
| Greg Ruback | Lib Dems | 1,199 | 3.2 |
| Tosh McDonald | Other | 758 | 2.0 |
| Andrew Walmsley | Other | 742 | 2.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Doncaster North Labour, safe seat
- Rother Valley Conservative, toss-up
- Bassetlaw Reform UK, competitive
- Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Labour, toss-up
- Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Reform UK, competitive
- Rotherham Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated