Gainsborough
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 71% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainsborough | 31.7% | 30.7% | 18.7% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.6 | 20.4%+10.3 | 24.3%−5.6 | 10.3%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,817 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 80.0% |
Current member
Sir Edward Leigh · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Leigh Elected | Conservative | 16,636 | 35.6 |
| Jess McGuire | Labour | 13,104 | 28.1 |
| Pat O'Connor | Reform UK | 9,916 | 21.2 |
| Lesley Rollings | Lib Dems | 5,001 | 10.7 |
| Vanessa Smith | Green | 1,832 | 3.9 |
| Tim Mellors | Other | 196 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newark Conservative, safe seat
- Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Reform UK, competitive
- Bassetlaw Reform UK, competitive
- Lincoln Labour, competitive
- Goole and Pocklington Conservative, safe seat
- Doncaster Central Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated