Scunthorpe
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe | 32.7% | 26.9% | 25.3% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.6 | 24.3%+2.6 | 20.4%+4.9 | 10.4%−3.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,752 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 68.3% |
Current member
Sir Nicholas Dakin · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Dakin Elected | Labour | 15,484 | 39.6 |
| Holly Mumby-Croft | Conservative | 11,942 | 30.6 |
| Darren Haley | Reform UK | 8,163 | 20.9 |
| Nick Cox | Green | 1,218 | 3.1 |
| Abdul Butt | Other | 1,202 | 3.1 |
| Cahal Burke | Lib Dems | 942 | 2.4 |
| Scott Curtis | Other | 100 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Goole and Pocklington Conservative, safe seat
- Bridlington and The Wolds Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated