Kingston upon Hull East
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston upon Hull East | 39.8% | 31.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+16.8 | 24.3%+7.2 | 10.3%−0.8 | 10.4%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,118 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 66.1% |
Current member
Karl Turner · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Turner Elected | Labour | 13,047 | 43.8 |
| Neil Hunter | Reform UK | 9,127 | 30.6 |
| Bob Morgan | Lib Dems | 3,252 | 10.9 |
| Kieran Persand | Conservative | 2,715 | 9.1 |
| Julia Brown | Green | 1,675 | 5.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Beverley and Holderness Conservative, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Bridlington and The Wolds Reform UK, toss-up
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
- Scunthorpe Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated