Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | 33.8% | 32.3% | 15.5% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.8 | 24.3%+8.0 | 20.4%−5.0 | 10.4%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,992 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 73.0% |
Current member
Emma Hardy · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Hardy Elected | Labour | 17,875 | 46.8 |
| Julie Peck | Reform UK | 8,896 | 23.3 |
| Rachel Storer | Conservative | 6,924 | 18.1 |
| Linda Johnson | Lib Dems | 2,625 | 6.9 |
| Kevin Paulson | Green | 1,748 | 4.6 |
| Lucy Needham | Other | 110 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
- Scunthorpe Reform UK, toss-up
- Beverley and Holderness Conservative, toss-up
- Bridlington and The Wolds Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated