Beverley and Holderness
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 82%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beverley and Holderness | 31.0% | 27.6% | 23.7% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.6 | 23.1%+4.6 | 24.3%−0.6 | 10.4%−3.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 90,245 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 78.9% |
Current member
Graham Stuart · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 0.3 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Stuart Elected | Conservative | 15,501 | 34.5 |
| Margaret Pinder | Labour | 15,377 | 34.3 |
| Andrew Smith | Reform UK | 8,198 | 18.3 |
| Denis Healy | Lib Dems | 3,386 | 7.5 |
| Jonathan Stephenson | Green | 1,647 | 3.7 |
| George McManus | Other | 625 | 1.4 |
| Chris Collin | Other | 89 | 0.2 |
| John Ottaway | Other | 74 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Bridlington and The Wolds Reform UK, toss-up
- Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Reform UK, safe seat
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated