Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | 38.3% | 27.5% | 19.5% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+15.2 | 24.3%+3.2 | 20.4%−0.9 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,406 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 68.4% |
Current member
Melanie Onn · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 10.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melanie Onn Elected | Labour | 15,336 | 41.9 |
| Oliver Freeston | Reform UK | 10,533 | 28.8 |
| Lia Nici | Conservative | 8,269 | 22.6 |
| Ed Fraser | Green | 1,115 | 3.0 |
| John Lawson | Lib Dems | 1,036 | 2.8 |
| Mark Gee | Other | 222 | 0.6 |
| Christopher Stephenson | Other | 108 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Louth and Horncastle Reform UK, toss-up
- Beverley and Holderness Conservative, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated