Louth and Horncastle
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louth and Horncastle | 34.8% | 32.7% | 14.3% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+11.7 | 20.4%+12.3 | 24.3%−10.0 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,149 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 53 |
| Employment rate | 72.8% |
Current member
Victoria Atkins · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 11.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria Atkins Elected | Conservative | 17,441 | 37.5 |
| Sean Matthews | Reform UK | 11,935 | 25.7 |
| Jonathan Slater | Labour | 10,475 | 22.5 |
| Robert Watson | Green | 2,504 | 5.4 |
| Ross Pepper | Lib Dems | 2,364 | 5.1 |
| Paul Hugill | Other | 1,359 | 2.9 |
| Iconic Arty-Pole | Other | 309 | 0.7 |
| Marcus Moorehouse | Other | 92 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Reform UK, safe seat
- Beverley and Holderness Conservative, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Boston and Skegness Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated