Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 18%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham | 35.7% | 28.7% | 11.4% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.4 | 23.1%+5.6 | 20.4%−9.0 | 10.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 117,518 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 69.5% |
Current member
Dame Diana Johnson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 27.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 7.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diana Johnson Elected | Labour | 18,480 | 48.3 |
| Martin Baker | Reform UK | 7,801 | 20.4 |
| Callum Procter | Conservative | 4,897 | 12.8 |
| Craig Woolmer | Lib Dems | 3,246 | 8.5 |
| Kerry Harrison | Green | 2,322 | 6.1 |
| Ahmet Cinalp | Other | 720 | 1.9 |
| Rowan Halstead | Other | 339 | 0.9 |
| Mike Whale | Other | 262 | 0.7 |
| Pauline Peachey | Other | 161 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Bridlington and The Wolds Reform UK, toss-up
- Beverley and Holderness Conservative, toss-up
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
- Scunthorpe Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated