Brigg and Immingham
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brigg and Immingham | 33.3% | 33.2% | 20.3% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.9 | 23.1%+10.2 | 24.3%−4.0 | 10.4%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,663 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 73.5% |
Current member
Martin Vickers · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Vickers Elected | Conservative | 15,905 | 37.4 |
| Najmul Hussain | Labour | 12,662 | 29.8 |
| Paul Ladlow | Reform UK | 10,594 | 24.9 |
| Amie Watson | Green | 1,905 | 4.5 |
| Eleanor Rylance | Lib Dems | 1,442 | 3.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scunthorpe Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Bridlington and The Wolds Reform UK, toss-up
- Goole and Pocklington Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated