Bridlington and The Wolds
Westminster constituency · England · Yorkshire and the Humber
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridlington and The Wolds | 32.5% | 30.8% | 18.1% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.4 | 20.4%+10.4 | 24.3%−6.1 | 10.4%−3.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,389 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 52 |
| Employment rate | 70.8% |
Current member
Charlie Dewhirst · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Dewhirst Elected | Conservative | 14,846 | 34.6 |
| Sarah Carter | Labour | 11,721 | 27.3 |
| Maria Bowtell | Reform UK | 10,350 | 24.1 |
| Jayne Phoenix | Lib Dems | 3,097 | 7.2 |
| Gill Leek | Green | 1,595 | 3.7 |
| Tim Norman | Other | 915 | 2.1 |
| Tom Cone | Other | 309 | 0.7 |
| Carlo Verda | Other | 104 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham Labour, competitive
- Kingston upon Hull East Reform UK, safe seat
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Reform UK, toss-up
- Beverley and Holderness Conservative, toss-up
- Brigg and Immingham Conservative, toss-up
- Scunthorpe Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated