Sleaford and North Hykeham
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 89%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleaford and North Hykeham | 32.4% | 29.7% | 18.2% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.0 | 23.1%+6.6 | 24.3%−6.0 | 10.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,433 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 78.1% |
Current member
Dr Caroline Johnson · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 9.0 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Johnson Elected | Conservative | 17,348 | 35.7 |
| Hanif Khan | Labour | 13,002 | 26.8 |
| Benjamin Jackson | Reform UK | 10,484 | 21.6 |
| Robert Oates | Other | 3,032 | 6.2 |
| Martin Blake | Green | 2,435 | 5.0 |
| Matthew Winnington | Lib Dems | 2,264 | 4.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lincoln Labour, competitive
- Grantham and Bourne Conservative, toss-up
- Newark Conservative, safe seat
- Gainsborough Reform UK, toss-up
- Rutland and Stamford Conservative, safe seat
- Boston and Skegness Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated