Melton and Syston
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melton and Syston | 34.3% | 28.2% | 17.2% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.8 | 23.1%+5.1 | 24.3%−7.0 | 10.4%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,181 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 77.3% |
Current member
Edward Argar · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 11.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 6.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Argar Elected | Conservative | 17,526 | 38.1 |
| Zafran Khan | Labour | 12,130 | 26.4 |
| Pete Morris | Reform UK | 8,945 | 19.5 |
| Alastair McQuillan | Green | 3,685 | 8.0 |
| Andy Konieczko | Lib Dems | 2,547 | 5.5 |
| Marilyn Gordon | Other | 517 | 1.1 |
| Teck Khong | Other | 348 | 0.8 |
| Matt Shouler | Other | 288 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rutland and Stamford Conservative, safe seat
- Rushcliffe Labour, toss-up
- Leicester East Conservative, safe seat
- Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Conservative, safe seat
- Leicester South Other, safe seat
- Gedling Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated