Leicester South
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives another party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Labour | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester South | 32.3% | 24.6% | 15.3% | 14.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+27.3 | 24.3%+0.4 | 10.4%+4.9 | 23.1%−9.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 120,087 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 30 |
| Employment rate | 67.2% |
Current member
Shockat Adam · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Another party won by 4.3 points.
Our current projection: another party ahead by 7.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shockat Adam Elected | Other | 14,739 | 35.2 |
| Jonathan Ashworth | Labour | 13,760 | 32.9 |
| Gerri Hickton | Conservative | 4,820 | 11.5 |
| Sharmen Rahman | Green | 3,826 | 9.1 |
| Craig Harwood | Reform UK | 2,470 | 5.9 |
| Carol Weaver | Lib Dems | 1,425 | 3.4 |
| Osman Admani | Other | 329 | 0.8 |
| Ann Green | Other | 279 | 0.7 |
| Ezechiel Adlore | Other | 189 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leicester East Conservative, safe seat
- Leicester West Labour, safe seat
- South Leicestershire Conservative, toss-up
- Mid Leicestershire Conservative, safe seat
- Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Conservative, safe seat
- Loughborough Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated