Leicester East
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Other | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester East | 29.5% | 18.0% | 17.3% | 14.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.1 | 5.0%+13.0 | 23.1%−5.8 | 24.3%−9.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 125,492 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 65.2% |
Current member
Shivani Raja · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 11.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shivani Raja Elected | Conservative | 14,526 | 31.1 |
| Rajesh Agrawal | Labour | 10,100 | 21.6 |
| Zuffar Haq | Lib Dems | 6,329 | 13.6 |
| Claudia Webbe | Other | 5,532 | 11.8 |
| Keith Vaz | Other | 3,681 | 7.9 |
| Raj Solanki | Reform UK | 2,611 | 5.6 |
| Mags Lewis | Green | 2,143 | 4.6 |
| Malihah Adam | Other | 974 | 2.1 |
| Nagarjun Agath | Other | 703 | 1.5 |
| Khandu Patel | Other | 115 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leicester South Other, safe seat
- Leicester West Labour, safe seat
- Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Conservative, safe seat
- Mid Leicestershire Conservative, safe seat
- South Leicestershire Conservative, toss-up
- Loughborough Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated