South Leicestershire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 91% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Leicestershire | 31.4% | 28.9% | 17.1% | 12.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.0 | 23.1%+5.8 | 24.3%−7.2 | 10.3%+2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,410 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 85.7% |
Current member
Alberto Costa · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 10.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Costa Elected | Conservative | 18,264 | 35.6 |
| Robert Parkinson | Labour | 12,758 | 24.8 |
| Bill Piper | Reform UK | 10,235 | 19.9 |
| Paul Hartshorn | Lib Dems | 7,621 | 14.8 |
| Mike Jelfs | Green | 2,481 | 4.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leicester South Other, safe seat
- Leicester West Labour, safe seat
- Leicester East Conservative, safe seat
- Mid Leicestershire Conservative, safe seat
- Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Conservative, safe seat
- Rugby Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated