Brentwood and Ongar
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 78%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentwood and Ongar | 33.8% | 30.2% | 15.2% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.3 | 23.1%+7.2 | 24.3%−9.0 | 10.3%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,423 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 78.7% |
Current member
Alex Burghart · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 12.4 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Burghart Elected | Conservative | 17,731 | 36.7 |
| Paul Godfrey | Reform UK | 11,751 | 24.3 |
| Gareth Barrett | Labour | 11,082 | 22.9 |
| David Kendall | Lib Dems | 5,809 | 12.0 |
| RJ Learmouth | Green | 1,770 | 3.7 |
| Robin Tilbrook | Other | 189 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hornchurch and Upminster Reform UK, toss-up
- Romford Conservative, toss-up
- Harlow Reform UK, toss-up
- Dagenham and Rainham Labour, toss-up
- North West Essex Conservative, safe seat
- Epping Forest Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated