Hornchurch and Upminster
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 87% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hornchurch and Upminster | 33.6% | 31.5% | 18.4% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.6 | 20.4%+11.1 | 24.3%−5.8 | 10.4%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,933 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 78.8% |
Current member
Julia Lopez · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 4.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Lopez Elected | Conservative | 15,260 | 32.5 |
| Nicholas Palmer | Reform UK | 13,317 | 28.4 |
| Sunny Brar | Labour | 12,939 | 27.6 |
| Melanie Collins | Green | 2,620 | 5.6 |
| Ian Sanderson | Lib Dems | 2,381 | 5.1 |
| David Warren Durant | Other | 394 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Romford Conservative, toss-up
- Dagenham and Rainham Labour, toss-up
- Thurrock Reform UK, competitive
- Bexleyheath and Crayford Reform UK, toss-up
- Brentwood and Ongar Conservative, toss-up
- Dartford Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated