Chingford and Woodford Green
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Other | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chingford and Woodford Green | 33.8% | 20.1% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.4 | 24.3%−4.2 | 5.0%+13.9 | 23.1%−6.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,091 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 75.2% |
Current member
Sir Iain Duncan Smith · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 9.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 13.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iain Duncan Smith Elected | Conservative | 17,281 | 35.6 |
| Shama Tatler | Labour | 12,524 | 25.8 |
| Faiza Shaheen | Other | 12,445 | 25.7 |
| Paul Luggeri | Reform UK | 3,653 | 7.5 |
| Chris Brody | Green | 1,334 | 2.7 |
| Josh Hadley | Lib Dems | 1,275 | 2.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leyton and Wanstead Labour, safe seat
- Walthamstow Labour, safe seat
- Ilford North Labour, toss-up
- East Ham Labour, safe seat
- Stratford and Bow Labour, safe seat
- Ilford South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated