East Ham
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Other | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Ham | 40.3% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 13.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+16.0 | 10.4%+5.9 | 5.0%+10.6 | 23.1%−9.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 132,906 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 59.6% |
Current member
Sir Stephen Timms · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 23.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Timms Elected | Labour | 19,570 | 51.7 |
| Tahir Mirza | Other | 6,707 | 17.7 |
| Rosie Pearce | Green | 4,226 | 11.2 |
| Maria Higson | Conservative | 3,876 | 10.2 |
| Daniel Oxley | Reform UK | 1,340 | 3.5 |
| Hillary Briffa | Lib Dems | 1,210 | 3.2 |
| Anand Kumar Sundar | Other | 578 | 1.5 |
| Sathish Mohan Ramadoss | Other | 385 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ilford South Labour, safe seat
- Ilford North Labour, toss-up
- Barking Labour, safe seat
- Leyton and Wanstead Labour, safe seat
- Stratford and Bow Labour, safe seat
- West Ham and Beckton Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated