Barking
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barking | 35.3% | 22.8% | 17.1% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+11.1 | 23.1%−0.2 | 10.4%+6.7 | 20.4%−9.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 134,461 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 32 |
| Employment rate | 67.0% |
Current member
Nesil Caliskan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 30.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 12.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nesil Caliskan Elected | Labour | 16,227 | 44.5 |
| Clive Peacock | Reform UK | 5,173 | 14.2 |
| Simon Anthony | Green | 4,988 | 13.7 |
| Julie Redmond | Conservative | 4,294 | 11.8 |
| Muhammad Asim | Other | 3,578 | 9.8 |
| Charley Hasted | Lib Dems | 1,015 | 2.8 |
| Dee Dias | Other | 753 | 2.1 |
| Lucy Baiye-Gaman | Other | 449 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ilford South Labour, safe seat
- East Ham Labour, safe seat
- Ilford North Labour, toss-up
- Leyton and Wanstead Labour, safe seat
- Stratford and Bow Labour, safe seat
- Erith and Thamesmead Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated